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FIRE Calculator

Monte Carlo simulation with tax-aware withdrawals and couples planning

Your Scenario

$

Today's dollars - will be adjusted for inflation

%

4% is the classic rule; 3.5% is more conservative

Split by account type for tax-aware withdrawal strategy

$
$
$
Total Portfolio$100K

How This Calculator Works

Monte Carlo Simulation

Runs 1,000 scenarios with randomized annual returns based on your expected return and volatility. Each simulation follows a different market path.

Tax-Aware Withdrawals

Withdraws from taxable accounts first, then pre-tax (with tax adjustment), then Roth last. Minimizes tax drag on your portfolio.

Income Streams

Social Security, pension, rental, and part-time income reduce the amount you need to withdraw from investments, improving success rate.

Spending Flexibility

If enabled, spending is reduced during bad market years when portfolio drops below threshold. This significantly improves survival rates.

Success Rate

80.2%

1,000 simulations

FIRE Number

$1.25M

Target at retirement

Coast FIRE Age

—

Keep saving until retirement

Median Final Value

$7.21M

At age 90

Spending flexibility adds 0.9% to your success rate

Without flexibility: 79.3% → With flexibility: 80.2%

10th Percentile

$0

Worst 10%

25th Percentile

$1.02M

Below average

75th Percentile

$20.72M

Above average

90th Percentile

$43.65M

Best 10%

Portfolio Projection

Showing percentile ranges across 1,000 simulations

Median
25th-75th %ile
10th-90th %ile
10th %ile (worst case)

Withdrawal Rate Comparison

How different withdrawal rates affect your success probability

Your current rate: 4% • Lower rates = safer but require more savings

What This Means

Moderate risk. Consider increasing savings, lowering withdrawal rate to 3.5%, or planning to work a few more years.
Key insight: The spread between 10th and 90th percentile ($0 to $43.65M) shows how much sequence of returns affects your outcome. Wider spread = more uncertainty.